Current Projects
Definition of a Generic Decision Making Framework and Design of an Open Decision Support Platform
Researcher: Simona Miraglia
Type: Joint Postdoctoral Research Project of the Global Decision Support Initiative (GDSI) and the Research Group CERDA
Fund: Strategic Research Funding DTU
Period: 01.04.2015-31.03.2018
Description: The research activity is addressing the definition of the overall decision theoretical and methodical framework to structure and facilitate decision processes when different decision alternatives are available and when the available information are subject to uncertainty and/or are incomplete, thus providing a robust tool to rank those alternatives in accordance with their consequences on sustainability, benefits and risks. Moreover, the framework shall facilitate the introduction of new information, changes in preferences and models and expert opinions with associated uncertainties. Based on the developed theoretical framework integrating quantitative assessment of risk and sustainability, the architecture of an Open Platform for the storage of information and models, the organisation of an analysis of models as well as the presentation of results of decision analyses shall be developed.
The research activity is part of the joint GDSI project aiming at supporting decision makers from industry and public authorities.
SysPark - System Model for Offshore Wind Park Support Structures
Type: Industrial Research and Development Project
Fund: RWE Innogy
Period: February 2015 – January 2018
Partners: Andreas Rogge (Project leader; BAM, Berlin, Germany), Ronald Schneider (BAM, Berlin, Germany), Sebastian Thöns
Description: Offshore wind parks consist of a
large number of turbines with equivalent support structures. The
performance of these support structures is highly dependent as they are
manufactured in series production using the very similar welding
procedures and quality standards. In addition, the support structures of
a wind park are exposed to the same deterioration processes and
environmental load conditions throughout their service lifes. Through
these system effects it is possible to indirectly infer the condition of
structures from inspection and monitoring results obtained from other
structures. The influence of inspection and monitoring results can be
quantified using reliability-based methods. This approach forms the
basis for optimizing inspection and monitoring strategies as well as
repair and maintenance actions, and it thus facilitates an efficient
management of support structures of offshore wind parks.
Type: European Scientific Networking and Dissemination Project
Fund: European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) as a part of Horizon 2020
Period: 13.11.2014 - 12.11.2018
Description: The COST Action TU1402 aims at
enhancing the benefit of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) by novel
utilization of applied decision analysis on how to assess the value of
SHM – even before it is implemented. This improves decision basis for
design, operation and life-cycle integrity management of structures and
facilitates more cost efficient, reliable and safe strategies for
maintaining and developing the built environment to the benefit of
society.
The COST Action TU1402 comprises about 120 researchers, engineers, industrial representatives, authorities and infrastructure owners and operators from 27 European Countries.
Structural Health Monitoring Systems Design
Researcher: Henning Brüske
Supervisor(s): Sebastian Thöns
Type: PhD Project
Fund: DTU, Department of Civil Engineering
Period: 02.11.2014- 31.10.2017
Description: Structural Health Monitoring
(SHM) allows for triggering timely and cost efficient remedial actions
to structures to counter deterioration, damage, peak loads and
unintended use if effective systems are applied. Monitoring systems can
be of support in maintaining safety for people, protecting the
environment and minimising asset life-cycle costs. All potential
benefits are in fact not always realised. Poorly designed SHM systems
can incur increased life-cycle costs and lead to production losses or
other disturbances through triggering unnecessary or inappropriate
rehabilitation actions.
The concept of Value of Information (VoI) for the pre-posterior Bayesian
decision analysis can be used to predict if a SHM strategy is
beneficial prior to its implementation and provides thus the basis for
SHM systems design. The VoI is calculated with probabilistic structural
models accounting for uncertainties of the structural performance, the
relationship between monitored performance indicators and life-cycle
costs, reliability and safety as well as uncertainties in the precision
of the applied monitoring techniques. In this project approaches, model
and tools are developed to facilitate an efficient and VoI based design
of SHM systems.
An Integrated Platform for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Critical Civil Infrastructures
Researcher: Evangelos Katsanos
Type: Joint Postdoctoral Research Project of the Research Groups CERDA and CESDYN
Fund: HC Ørsted Postdoc Programme co-funded by Marie Curie Actions (EU-FP7)
Period: 01.10.2014 – 30.09.2016
Description: Critical Infrastructures (CIs), being extensively interrelated with modern communities, constitute the vital lifeline to keep both society and economy functioning in a steady and prosperous rate. Thus, a protective grid of elaborate techniques and policies should be applied in order to provide safety and security for the CIs against the devastating effects of either natural or man-made threats. Along these lines, the proposed research work aims at developing a comprehensive and systematic approach for the risk assessment-management of critical civil infrastructures threatened by a multi-hazard environment during their entire life span. A holistic methodology will be carried out in order to perform a risk-based decision analysis, estimating both the direct and the indirect natural hazard consequences for a CI. At the same time, an additional sustainability-based evaluation will be implemented regarding the expected life-cycle environmental impacts from losses and recovery of the CI after adverse natural events.
Past Projects
Comparison of structural reliabilities based on Eurocodes and Danish Standards for fire design
Type: Consulting Project
Fund: Danish Standards
Period: May 2014 - December 2014
Partners: Sebastian Thöns, Florian Berchtold (BAM Berlin), Michael Havbro Faber, John Dalsgaard Sørensen, Annemarie Poulsen (Rambøll)
Description: The changes in the safety concept for
the design of structures subjected to fire at the transition from Danish
Standards (1998) to Eurocodes and associated Danish national annexes
are analysed in this project. Probabilistic models are established for
the uncertainties related to representative forms of the limit states of
the building materials steel, concrete and timber subjected to fire and
based on the background documents of the Eurocodes and the Danish
Standards. The structural reliabilities for structural members of the
three individual materials are calculated based on the Danish Standards
and the Eurocodes with the associated Danish National Annexes. The
structural reliabilities are analysed and compared to the respective
structural target reliability requirements. Recommendations to Danish
Standards are given in order to ensure the safety of structures
subjected to fire in Denmark.
Operational Expenditure Optimization utilizing Condition Monitoring for Wind Parks
Student: Allan May (University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK)
Supervisor(s): McMillan, David (Principal Investigator), Thöns, Sebastian (Co-investigator), Golysheva, Evgenia (Co-investigator), Comeault, Chad (Co-investigator), Quail, Francis (Co-investigator)
Type: PhD Project
Fund: University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
Period: 30.09.2012 - 30.09.2015
Description: The true economic value of a condition
based maintenance strategy for offshore wind farms has yet to be
calculated. The paper published at the PMAPS 2012 conference is seen as a
first step to integrate both concepts. So far, studies have focused on
either the functionality of the turbine, or on the structural integrity,
but not both. This PhD is jointly conducted with the Research Field
CERDA at the Technical University of Denmark and will involve closing
the research gap which exists between reliability modelling of wind
turbine functionality and modelling of structural integrity.
Additionally, the research will answer key questions about the economic
viability of condition based maintenance being posed by operators and
3rd party O&M providers. The research will be supported by the
industrial partners Vestas - American Wind Technology, Inc. and Romax.
Both partners are keen to see value being quantified through modelling,
and will be providing data and expertise as required. The result will be
a comprehensive approach which will facilitate quantification of the
overall economic benefits of condition monitoring. With a case study,
the industrial application of the approach will be shown and the
benefits will be demonstrated. See also the project website at the University of Strathclyde.
Hierarchical Modeling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis
Student: Rocco Custer
Supervisor(s): Michael Havbro Faber, Kazuyoshi Nishijima
Type: PhD Project
Fund: DTU
Period: 2011- 2014
Description: Faced with flood risk, decision makers
in both private and public sectors are requested to identify optimal
risk reduction measures to minimize the risks due to flood events. The
aim of this project is to support decision makers by establishing a
flood risk model allowing the accommodation of decision alternatives. A
generic consequence model for engineering facilities in floods is
developed in terms of Bayesian probabilistic networks. In particular,
engineering facilities with flood protection functionality and
engineering facilities exposed to floods, such as residential and
industrial buildings, are modeled. The consequence modules are
hierarchically integrated with readily available hazard modules to form a
complete risk model. Moreover, portfolio aggregation schemes and model
weighing are investigated.
Development of stochastic typhoon model in Northwest Pacific region and its application to portfolio loss estimation
Student: Mathias Graf
Supervisor(s): Michael Havbro Faber, Kazuyoshi Nishijima
Type: External PhD Project
Fund: Industry
Period: 2007 - 2011
Description: A framework as well as a software tool for portfolio loss estimation due to typhoon events is established taking basis in the Bayesian statistics and Bayesian probabilistic network. The Bayesian approach enables consistent integration of historical evidence, professional experience and scientific knowledge for typhoon events. The established software tool supports decision makers in insurance industries to design their insurance policies with a better precision, by incorporating information available at any stage of decision making.
Real Time Decision Support in the Face of Evolving Natural Hazards
Student: Annett Anders
Supervisor(s): Kazuyoshi Nishijima, Michael Havbro Faber
Type: PhD Project
Fund: Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF)
Period: 2010 - 2013
Description: The present project aims, on the basis of the pre-posterior decision theory, at establishing a framework for near-real-time decision making which supports decisions on loss reduction in the face of emerging natural hazards. The natural hazards considered in the present project have common characteristics; the processes of natural hazard events evolve relatively slowly or precursors on the intensities of natural hazard events are available prior to the impacts of the events. Hence, reactive loss reduction actions can be undertaken if required. The project is organized into the following main parts: (1) general identification and formulation of the decision problem; (2) indicator based, generic characterization and probabilistic modeling of hazard processes and consequences and (3) mathematical formulation and numerical implementation of decision optimization strategies facilitating utilization of near-real-time information. The established framework facilitates decision makers to optimize decisions on e.g. operation of facilities, evacuation of people and assets, and early warning for natural hazards; e.g. tropical/winter storms, floods and avalanches.
Risk-based Management for Civil Infrastructure under Climate Change
Student: Shuoyun Zhang
Supervisor(s): Kazuyoshi Nishijima, Michael Havbro Faber, Eleni Chatzi
Type: External PhD Project
Fund: China Scholarship Council (CSC)
Period: 2010 - 2013
Description: Emerging evidences of the global climate change in the last decades have called for actions to reduce negative impact of the climate change at different levels of society proactively and reactively. As the first defense of the society to the external environment, civil infrastructure plays the crucial role to safeguard people and other assets. Correspondingly, societal decision makers responsible for the management of civil infrastructure are requested to identify appropriate decisions for the adaptation to the climate change in civil engineering; decisions that are robust to large uncertainties associated with the projection of the future climate under the climate change. The aim of the present project is to establish a decision framework for the adaptation of civil infrastructure to the emerging climate change with due consideration of large uncertainties evolving over time. Special focus is given on a generic format of consequence models/framework that facilitate the assessment of the consequence of the variety of decision alternatives – not only due to different type and degree of the actions but also the difference in the timing of the actions.