Assoc. Prof. Sebastian Thöns holds the lecture in "Probabilistic Modelling in Civil Engineering".

The course on Probabilistic Modelling in Civil Engineering (PMCE) introduces the basic concepts on probability and probabilistic modelling with emphasis on civil engineering applications. Through the course, participants will acquire knowledge and skills on probabilistic modelling, which serve as a basis for further study and research related to, but not limited to, probabilistic mechanics, structural reliability analysis, risk assessment and ultimately for engineering decision making under uncertainty from strategic, tactical and operational perspectives.

Students who have met the objectives of the course will be able to:

  • Summarize data with descriptive statistics
  • Explain the definition and concept of random variables/​vectors/​processes
  • Select appropriate distributions of random variables/vectors for static random phenomena
  • Estimate distribution parameters
  • Verify estimated probabilistic models
  • Define limit state functions with basic random variables for given failure modes
  • Perform simple reliability analysis using the First Order Reliability Method
  • Explain the fundamental concept of reliability-based design
  • Estimate the probability of failure using Monte Carlo simulation technique
  • Model uncertain phenomena within the Bayesian framework
  • Formulate and analyse simple engineering decision problems under uncertainty

 Please see the DTU course base for further information.